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BREAKING: Texas vs. Ohio State Preview, odds, and picks for College Football Playoff semifinal

The Cotton Bowl semifinal matchup between Texas and Ohio State on Friday night sets the stage for an intense battle, with the winner advancing to the College Football Playoff National Championship. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

Key Storylines

  1. Inaugural 12-Team Playoff: Both Texas and Ohio State benefit from the expanded format. Ohio State, after a loss to Michigan, and Texas, with two losses including the SEC title game to Georgia, wouldn’t have made the cut in the old 4-team CFP.
  2. Momentum: Ohio State crushed Oregon in the quarterfinals, while Texas edged Arizona State in double-overtime, exposing some vulnerabilities.

Betting Odds (via FanDuel)

  • Spread: Ohio State -5.5
  • Total Points: 52.5
  • Moneyline: Ohio State -118, Texas -104

Team Strengths and Weaknesses

Ohio State

Strengths:

  • Dynamic Passing Game: Quarterback Will Howard is on fire, completing 74.5% of passes with 11.5 yards per attempt in the Playoff.
  • Explosive Starts: Ohio State dominates first quarters, outscoring opponents by 35 points in the Playoff and gaining 11.2 yards per play.
  • Defensive Adjustments: Incorporating Cover 2 and using safety Caleb Downs in the box has resulted in 19 tackles for loss and 12 sacks in two games.

Weaknesses:

  • Physicality at the Line: Ohio State struggled against physical teams like Michigan but has improved with a 5.3 YPC average in the Playoff.
  • Rushing Consistency: Can they sustain the improvements against a stout Texas defense?

Texas

Strengths:

  • Elite Defense: Ranked No. 1 in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, with top-tier pass coverage and a relentless front seven.
  • Big-Play Potential: Secondary stars like Jahdae Barron and edge rushers create high havoc rates.

Weaknesses:

  • Offensive Line Struggles: Allowed 33 sacks this season, creating issues on early downs and long-yardage situations.
  • Quarterback Under Pressure: Quinn Ewers struggles significantly under pressure, with a passer rating drop of nearly 50 points.

Key Matchups

  1. Jeremiah Smith & Emeka Egbuka vs. Texas Secondary:
    • Ohio State’s receivers thrive on deep targets, exploiting Malik Muhammad and others who have shown vulnerabilities in past games.
  2. Quintrevion Wisner (RB) in the Passing Game:
    • Texas will likely lean on quick passes and screens to counter Ohio State’s aggressive front seven.
  3. Ohio State’s Early Momentum:
    • Can Texas’ defense withstand the Buckeyes’ first-quarter barrage, or will it dictate the game’s flow?

Prediction

Ohio State has been peaking at the perfect time, showcasing dominance in all facets of their Playoff games. Texas, while defensively strong, has shown cracks against top-tier offenses. Look for the Buckeyes to strike early, forcing Texas into catch-up mode where Ewers’ pressure struggles may prove costly.

Final Score Prediction:
Ohio State 34, Texas 24

Betting Picks:

  • Spread: Ohio State -5.5
  • Over/Under: Over 52.5

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