The Toronto Blue Jays entered the offseason with aspirations of contending for a championship in 2025, reportedly targeting high-profile players like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. However, they fell short of landing their top targets. Adding to their challenges, Juan Soto’s record-breaking $765 million contract has likely increased the anticipated cost of re-signing their star first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is projected by Spotrac to command a deal exceeding $400 million in free agency next offseason. With Guerrero’s price potentially climbing even higher, the Blue Jays might explore trading him to avoid the risk of losing him without compensation.
One potential trade partner is the Boston Red Sox, who boast a deep farm system capable of offering a compelling package. A hypothetical deal could see the Red Sox acquiring Guerrero in exchange for a package that includes:
- 1B Triston Casas: A talented 24-year-old first baseman who would serve as a replacement for Guerrero.
- SS Yoeilin Cespedes: Boston’s No. 5 prospect.
- RHP David Sandlin: Boston’s No. 8 prospect.
- RHP Richard Fitts: Boston’s No. 10 prospect.
For the Red Sox, acquiring Guerrero is a no-brainer. While the trade package includes promising players, Boston’s farm system has enough depth to absorb the loss, and Guerrero would provide an immediate upgrade at first base.
For the Blue Jays, while trading Guerrero is undeniably risky given his generational talent, the package offers significant value. Casas could step in as a major-league-ready replacement, and the addition of three highly regarded prospects bolsters Toronto’s pipeline. This return could be more advantageous than potentially losing Guerrero in free agency if the Blue Jays fail to outbid competitors.
The Blue Jays have already missed out on Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani in recent bidding wars, casting doubt on their ability to win the Guerrero sweepstakes in 2026. If Toronto’s front office doubts its chances of retaining Guerrero, a trade like this could be a pragmatic move to maximize his value while they still can.
